Fuel duty revenues rise, but long-term structural pressures are evident

The latest HMRC monthly tax receipts show fuel duty receipts from April 2026 to August 2026 were £10.5bn, which is £0.3bn higher than the same period last year.

Commenting on the latest data, Sheena McGuinness, Co-head of energy and natural resources at RSM UK said: “Today’s data shows a modest year-on-year increase in fuel duty revenues, suggesting road-fuel demand remains resilient despite continued growth in electric vehicle adoption. While the long-term direction of travel remains clear, with increasing electrification of transport expected to erode the fuel-duty tax base over time, today's figures underline that the UK's transition away from liquid fuels will be gradual rather than sudden.

“For policymakers, the long-term data highlights a growing challenge. Whilst its relative contribution to the overall tax revenues has been steadily declining, representing 4-5% of overall tax revenue a decade ago and now less than 2%*, fuel duty remains one of the government's largest energy-related revenue streams. The slight increase in tax revenues for fuel duties shown in the latest data indicates that policymakers have a little more time before a replacement for fuel duty becomes unavoidable. However, the long-term trend towards electric vehicles means the treasury will eventually need to consider how future transport infrastructure and public services are funded as fuel-duty revenues continue to decline.

“The longer-term challenge is therefore not how much fuel duty is being collected today, but how transport taxation evolves as electric vehicles become the dominant technology. The success of the energy transition will ultimately require a fundamental rethink of how the UK's roads are funded, placing a spotlight on the importance of energy taxation policy ahead of the Autumn Budget.

“While today's figures provide useful insight into fuel-duty receipts, updated Energy Profits Levy (EPL) data remains absent. EPL statistics are not published with the same frequency as seen in earlier years, leaving a growing information gap around one of the UK's most significant energy-sector taxes. At a time when policymakers are debating the future fiscal framework for the North Sea, timely and transparent reporting of EPL revenues is more important than ever, to help inform the debate on energy security, investment and the pace of the transition to a lower-carbon energy system.

“Historical data shows that EPL revenues are declining, raising important questions about the long-term sustainability of the UK's current approach to North Sea taxation. The challenge for the government is that each increase in tax rates is applied to a progressively smaller tax base. Operators continue to reassess investment decisions, while restrictions on future licensing have increased uncertainty across the basin. As a result, higher headline tax rates do not necessarily translate into higher revenues.”

*Data according to OBR forecasts

authors:sheena-mcguinness