The latest HMRC monthly tax receipts show Energy Profit Levy (EPL) revenues for July 2026 were £762m, down from £928m in July 2025, but up from £716m in January 2026.

Fuel duty receipts from April 2026 to July 2026 are at £8.4bn, which is £0.2bn higher than the same period last year.

Sheena McGuinness, Co-Head of Energy and Natural Resources at RSM UK said: “After a six- month delay in publishing the data, the uptick in Energy Profit Levy (EPL) reverses an almost 2-year downward trend, with the numbers previously tracking down. This is purely due to rising oil prices rather than a rise in volumes or production and has not been enough to impact overall year-on-year decline in EPL revenues which has been driven by oil field license restrictions and steep additional taxes.

“While this nudges EPL revenues closer to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast*, it falls short of the July 2024 predictions that an increase in rate would raise £6bn in tax revenues to fund the majority of GB Energy.

“We are yet to see if Andy Burnham will give the green light for more North Sea Oil drilling licenses, which is expected to be pushed back to autumn. Increasing tax revenues from EPL could support this policy decision, by evidencing the financial benefits of the controversial Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.

“While today’s data also shows an increase in fuel price revenues, prolonged fuel price volatility caused by geopolitical tensions could facilitate a decline in the coming months, encouraging consumers to take a more cautious approach to fuel usage and increasing the attractiveness of EVs as a viable alternative. This is supported by a rise in the second-hand EV car market, with battery electric car transactions rising 67.0% in Q2 of 2026, alongside rising prices for second-hand EVs, demonstrating strong demand in the EV market.”

* OBR forecast’s that the windfall tax will raise £2bn in 2026-2027 (Data as of November 2025.)

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