Britain’s leading managed restaurant, pub and bar groups extended a run of flat trading with like-for-like sales growth of just 0.1% in October, the latest CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker reveals.

It is a third successive month of fractional increases and means growth has been above 1% for only one month of 2025 so far. The numbers reflect the ongoing hesitancy of consumers about their discretionary spending.

Pubs’ sales rise but restaurants and bars fall

The Hospitality Business Tracker—produced by CGA by NIQ in association with RSM—reveals fluctuating trends across hospitality’s different channels in October. Like-for-like sales in managed pubs were 1.9% up from October 2024, thanks to reasonable weather and a flurry of Halloween trading on the final day of the month.

By contrast, sales in managed restaurants were down by 1.4% year-on-year—the seventh negative number for the sector in the last eight months. Pubs have outperformed both restaurants and hospitality as a whole in every month of 2025 so far.

Pressure on people’s spending has also hit sales in managed bars, which slipped 5.9% year-on-year in October. This downward trend also reflects a steady shift towards earlier visits for drinking-out occasions, which has curtailed footfall in late-opening bars.

Openings drive total growth

While sector-wide sales have been broadly flat, new site openings helped managed groups to achieve solid growth on a total sales basis in October. Including at venues opened by groups in the last 12 months, sales were 3.0% ahead of last October—a figure that is only marginally below the UK’s current rate of inflation.

This suggests that underlying demand for hospitality is stable, and that operators and investors remain optimistic enough to launch new restaurants, pubs and bars. There are more signs of confidence in the latest edition of the Hospitality Market Monitor, which shows Britain’s number of licensed venues increased by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025.

London outpaces regions

For the third month in four, London provided slightly better growth for hospitality operators than the rest of the country. Like-for-like sales within the M25 were 0.5% ahead year-on-year, while they were exactly flat outside of the M25. This reflects the relative affluence and attractiveness of London’s hospitality scene and popularity for tourism, and the ongoing return of office workers after long periods of working from home.

Saxon Moseley, Head of Leisure and Hospitality at RSM UK, said: “The hospitality industry continues to limp towards the budget with another set of disappointing results, with only pubs showing signs of like-for-like growth while the wider sector struggles with low consumer confidence and subdued demand. Attention now turns to the Autumn Budget, as operators look to the Treasury for meaningful support to offset last year’s damaging employment tax rises. Regardless of what’s announced, simply moving past the budget should provide a measure of clarity that has been lacking in recent months, enabling businesses and consumers to plan for the year ahead. With Christmas trade vital to the industry, the timing could not be more critical.”

Karl Chessell, Director - Hospitality Operators and Food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said: “October’s dull weather was well matched to the subdued mood of hospitality. These latest figures show hard it is for businesses to achieve real-terms growth at the moment, and with footfall well below the levels of last year they will be pinning hopes on strong festive trading to replenish reserves. The sector is now looking to the forthcoming Budget for support to stimulate consumer spending and ease its very heavy burden of costs. This support can help build a strong sector that drives long-term economic growth and job creation."

CGA by NIQ collected sales figures directly from 122 leading managed groups for October’s edition of the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker, which provides authoritative monthly insights into Britain’s restaurant, pub and bar sales. Companies participating in the Tracker receive a fuller breakdown of trading that helps to benchmark performance and understand market trends. To join the cohort, contact Andrew Dean at andy.dean@nielseniq.com

Participants in the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker: Adventure Leisure Ltd, All Star Lanes, Amber Taverns, Anglian Country Inns, Arc Inspirations, Azzurri Group (Ask Italian, Coco di Mama, Zizzi), Barburrito, Barworks, Beds and Bars, Big Fang Collective, Big Table Group (Banana Tree Restaurants, Bella Italia, Chiquito, Frankie & Benny’s, Las Iguanas), Bill’s Restaurants, Bleecker St Burger, Boisdale Ltd, Boom Battle Bar, Boston Tea Party, Boxpark, BrewDog, Burger & Lobster, Buzzworks Holdings Group, Byron, Chaiiwala, Chance and Counters, Coaching Inn Group Ltd, Comptoir Group Plc, Cote Restaurants, Creams Café, Darwin & Wallace, Dishoom, Evolv Collection, Five Guys, Fortnum & Mason, Fuller Smith & Turner, Gaucho Grill, Giggling Squid, Glendola Leisure, Gordon Ramsay Restaurants, Greene King (Chef & Brewer, Hungry Horse, Flaming Grill), Hall & Woodhouse, Hawthorn Leisure, Heartwood Collection, Honest Burgers, HOP Vietnamese, Individual Restaurants, Kibou, Laine Pub Co, Lane 7, Liberation, Lina Stores, Loungers, Lucky Voice, Marston’s, McMullen & Sons Ltd, Megans, Mildreds, Mission Mars, Mitchells & Butlers (Harvester, Toby, Miller & Carter, All Bar One), MJMK Restaurants, Mojo Bar, Mowgli, Nando’s Restaurants, Neos Hospitality, New World Trading Company, Nightcap Plc, North Brewing Co, NQ64 Arcade Bars , Open House London, Parogon Pub Group, Peach Pubs, Pho, Pizza Express, Pizza Hut UK, Popeyes, Portobello Starboard Ltd, Prezzo, Public House Group, Punch Pub Co, Revolution Bars, Rick Stein Restaurants, Riley’s, Rosa’s Thai, Roxy Leisure, San Carlo, Sandbox VR, Shepherd Neame, Simmons Bars Group, Southern Wind Group (Fazenda), St Austell, Star Pubs & Bars, State of Play Hospitality, Stonegate Pub Co (Slug & Lettuce, Yates’, Walkabout, Bermondsey Pub Company), Tasty Plc, TGI Fridays UK, The Alchemist, The Fulham Shore, The Restaurant Group, Thunderbird Fried Chicken, Tonkotsu, Topgolf Ltd, Tortilla, Tossed, Treetop Golf, True North Brew Co, Upham Pub Co, Urban Pubs & Bars, Urban Village Pub Co, Various Eateries (Strada, Coppa Club), Village Hotels, Wagamama, Wasabi, Wells & Co, Whitbread (Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Table Table), Wingstop, Yolk, YO! Sushi, Young’s and Yummy Collection.

About CGA by NIQ

CGA by NIQ provides definitive On Premise consumer intelligence that reveals new pathways to growth for the world’s most successful food and drink brands. With more than 30 years of research, data, and analytics, CGA by NIQ provides the Full View™.

CGA by NIQ works with food and beverage suppliers, consumer brand owners, wholesalers, government entities, pubs, bars, and restaurants to protect and shape the future of the On Premise experience. Using complete and clear understanding of measurement and insights, CGA by NIQ provides a competitive edge to guide winning strategies for On Premise businesses.

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