House Price Index: UK data shows modest increase despite underlying market weakness
The latest UK House Price Index showed an overall monthly increase of 0.7% to April 30 2026, with most regions seeing a slight increase. The average house price in the UK rose slightly to £270,000, up from £268,000 at the end of March.
However, recent data from The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors reported that sales market activity indicators remain firmly negative, which suggests this apparent improvement masks a more subdued and uncertain housing market.
Stacy Eden, Partner and National Head of Real Estate for RSM UK said: “While the April house price data points to a modest monthly increase, this should not be interpreted as a turning point for the housing market. The uplift is largely technical, and the broader picture remains one of a market under pressure, with affordability constraints and economic uncertainty continuing to weigh on demand.
“April’s increase is an anomaly, largely driven by base effects following a significant decline in April 2025, when changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) resulted in a sharp 2.9% monthly fall in prices. As a result, even modest increases in April 2026 are amplified, giving a misleading impression of market strength.
“In addition, the HPI relies on completed transactions that often reflect price agreements from several months earlier. This lag means the data does not fully capture the current market sentiment, which remains weak. Survey evidence and forward-looking indicators continue to highlight constrained affordability, economic uncertainty, and subdued demand.
“The April data is also provisional, based on incomplete transaction volumes, and therefore subject to revision. Early estimates can overstate price movements, particularly during periods of market transition. Furthermore, changes in the mix of properties sold - including regional variation and a higher proportion of higher-value transactions - may also be contributing to the monthly increase in headline prices, without indicating broad-based growth.
He added: “We expect the underlying trend of subdued growth, and in some areas declining prices, to persist over the coming months. Policymakers and market participants should be cautious about reading too much into short-term movements in provisional data.”