Ignore September’s SMMT data: what matters is how quickly the sector bounces back
Commenting on the latest SMMT UK vehicle manufacturing data, Emily Sawicz, Director and Industrials Senior Analyst at RSM UK, said: “The 27.1% car production plummet in September is almost all attributable to the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) cyber-attack, which paralysed its production for several weeks, so in many ways we can ignore the data.
“As JLR recovers from that incident and starts to ramp production back up again, the big question is how much vehicle manufacturing bounces back over the next couple of months.
“With European manufacturers running at on average 55% capacity, there’s plenty of scope for growth but no real incentive for manufacturers to increase production: there’s still huge uncertainty and risk from tariffs, and consumer demand looks fragile and unpredictable.
“Alongside this, and worryingly for UK and European firms, Chinese manufacturers, such as BYD, MG and Xpeng are building market share and we expect that, with the USA withdrawing its federal tax credits for EVs on 30th September, even more of these vehicles will flood into the European market.
“In the UK it’s widely predicted that the Chancellor will re-instate the 5p reduction in Fuel Duty in November’s Budget, which would give a further boost for UK EV sales, alongside the new EV subsidy.
“Looking ahead, forecasts for 2026 suggest a rebound of 4.4% in UK output, ahead of the EU’s 2.7%. With the right policy support and investment, the UK remains well positioned to take advantage of this growth opportunity and lead from the front; but 2025 will continue to be a year of adjustment rather than acceleration.”