Housing market remains buoyant despite post-budget drop, but concerns on the horizon

Residential property transactions in November 2024 returned to their previous levels, with seasonally adjusted residential transactions decreasing by 8% to 92,640 in November, down from 100,580 in October. 

For the same period, seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions fell below their previous levels, decreasing by 33% from October 2024. October 2024 saw the highest monthly seasonally adjusted figures since these statistics began in April 2005, which alongside the sharp fall in transactions in November could indicate that transactions were brought forward to October 2024. 
Between April and November 2024, non-residential transactions totalled 83,950, the highest level since 2018. 

Commenting on the latest government figures for monthly property transactions, Stacy Eden, Partner and Head of Real Estate at RSM UK, said: "Residential property transactions for November 2024 were 92,640, which is 13% higher than the previous year and aside from October 2024, is the highest number of transactions since December 2022, indicating the market remains buoyant. It is important to note that October saw a large jump in transactions due to purchasers’ concerns about future stamp duty land tax rises before the Autumn Budget. But, the market is showing further signs of moving in the right direction, with transactions between April and November 2024 sitting 10% above the same period for 2023.

“Transactions in Q4 2024 have been driven by an expectation that in 2025, growth will edge towards a normal level, and interest rates will continue to fall towards 4%. However, with debt yields rising, tax increases, and potential for further fiscal constraints, there is some concern that residential transactions may see a downturn if market confidence dips.”

He added: “It is therefore important the government continues to push forward with policies and investment to ensure housebuilding targets are realised, by focusing on development and planning reforms. This will have the added benefit of boosting the UK economy when fiscal and monetary levers are not available.”