Mining INDABA 2026: outlook for metals, mining investment and M&A
Mining INDABA 2026: investor and market sentiment
Conversations so far this week at the Mining INDABA in Cape Town are cautiously positive.
Ahead of the conference, we asked ACG Metals (LSE:ACG; OTC:ACGAF), a listed mining group focused on the consolidation of the copper sector, what their expectations were for this year’s conference.
“INDABA is an important platform for us to deepen relationships with existing and prospective investors as well as other strategic partners.”
Patrick Henze, CFO, ACG Metals
There is a lot for investors and companies seeking investment to consider at the moment.
On the positive side, metal prices are at record highs which, in normal times, might have made for a party atmosphere amongst brokers and companies seeking investment.
These are not, however, normal times.
The level of global political uncertainty is as unprecedented as current commodity prices, and given the undermining of established international structures and norms, it is not surprising that investors and companies are reassessing their investment strategies and priorities.
While Cape Town seems geographically detached from current warzones, it is noticeable how topics far broader than metal prices, mines and even ESG and AI are permeating conversations in the conference halls, drinks events and coffee meetings.
We followed up this week with ACG Metals on whether INDABA was meeting their expectations, and the view was upbeat.
“After just 18 months as a fully listed company, ACG is increasingly well known, and the quality and volume of engagement we are seeing reflects growing confidence in our strategy."
Patrick Henze, CFO, ACG Metals
Mining sector review: metal prices and performance in 2025
Before the US action in Venezuela and increasing rhetoric on Greenland at the start of 2026, a number of key themes dominated 2025.
Metal prices increased almost across the board, with industrial metals (especially copper and lithium) and precious metals (especially gold and silver) experiencing sharp price increases. While the price drivers varied by commodity, common factors were increasing demand, tight supply, geopolitical shocks and macroeconomic forces.
It is interesting to consider how increased metal prices have correlated with share prices in 2025. We looked at share prices for the world’s largest 20 listed mining businesses between 1 January 2025 and 31 January 2026 – the average increase over the period was 115%.
Despite the high prices, IPO activity remained depressed – in London there were only two mining IPOs in 2025, both on AIM, raising a grand total of $5m. However, there may be grounds for optimism here too, according to Diane Craig, Capital Markets Partner at RSM.
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Whilst IPO volumes have been reduced in recent years, there are positive signs of increased market confidence as 2025 ended and 2026 begun, which could result in more international mining companies seeking a listing. London, with the highest proportion of mining stocks by market capitalisation globally, and history of attracting international companies should see increased interest throughout 2026 with recent moves to simplify the listing process also making IPOs in London easier.
While IPO activity has been relatively low, 2025 saw a spike in M&A transactions.
The Anglo-Teck merger was the largest example of a clear trend towards consolidations and mergers in 2025, which has been widely characterised as a response to geopolitical risk and associated resource nationalism, as well as a focus on the green economy and sharing resources.
Mining outlook 2026: geopolitical risk and deal activity
M&A transactions are likely to continue in 2026, and we expect to see further private-equity activity in the sector.
Geopolitical uncertainty looks set to continue as countries and governments grapple with how to respond to upheaval in the established ’world order’, and it seems likely that this will continue to limit IPO activity.
Investment in exploration and early-stage projects will always be a long-term play, and the risks posed by current global tensions do not create confidence that now is the right time to invest, whatever your view of the current high prices.
What mining investors and operators are focusing on today
I’ve been asking myself this week how much these global trends actually impact decision making by individual investors.
While they undoubtedly provide great conversation opportunities for networking events, most individual conversations continue to focus on the "controllables":
- How much will it cost to bring this asset into production?
- What are the supply/demand dynamics for this commodity that will make it a good investment?
- How can AI be used to improve the efficiency of this project?
I don’t think this is a case of "heads in the sand" or hoping for the best, but rather a recognition that we can’t impact short-term global events, so it makes more sense to focus on long-term fundamentals.
RSM will leave Cape Town thinking about how what we’ve learnt impacts our clients, and confident that whatever 2026 holds, the world will continue to need metals, and people will continue to invest in the right assets at the right prices.
How we can help your mining and metals business
We work with a wide variety of clients in the mining and metals sector across the UK and globally, with our expertise spanning:
- Global network/capabilities, including audit and tax
- Global mobility support and tax incentives
- Advice on systems compliance with UK and wider regulations
- Corporate governance, including ESG
- Capital markets transactions
- Model audit and due diligence assignments.
If you’d like to discuss how mining investment trends, M&A activity or geopolitical risk could impact your business, please contact Graham Ricketts.